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期刊来源：BMJ

原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-077166

摘要内容如下：

目的

从英国烘焙大赛中确定圣诞甜点中各种成分对健康的益处和危害。

设计

观察性研究荟萃分析的总括综述。

数据源

英国烘焙大赛网站、EMBASE、MEDLINE和Scopus。

纳入标准

对评估圣诞甜点成分与死亡或疾病风险之间关系的观察性研究的荟萃分析进行总括审查。

主要结局指标

英国烘焙大赛圣诞甜点食谱中的成分组与死亡或疾病风险之间的保护性和有害总结关联的比例。

结果

英国烘焙大赛（Great British Bake Off）网站上提供了48种圣诞甜点（即蛋糕、饼干、糕点、布丁和甜点）的食谱，其中包含178种独特的配料，这些配料被分为17个主要配料组。一项文献检索确定了7008个标题和摘要，其中46篇合格的总括评论报告了成分组与死亡或疾病风险之间的363个独特的摘要关联。在这些总结关联中，149个（41%）是显著的，包括110个（74%）估计成分组降低了死亡或疾病的风险，39个（26%）增加了风险。与死亡或疾病风险降低相关的最常见成分组是水果（44/110，40%）、咖啡（17/110，16%）和坚果（14/110，13%），而酒精（20/39，51%）和糖（5/39，13%）是与死亡或疾病风险增加相关的最常见成分组。

结论

英国烘焙大赛（The Great British Bake Off）的圣诞甜点食谱通常使用与降低而不是增加死亡或疾病风险相关的成分组。今年圣诞节，如果把对观察性营养研究局限性的担忧放在一边，你可以鱼与熊掌兼得。

英文原文如下：

Abstracts

OBJECTIVE  To determine the health benefits and harms of various ingredients in Christmas desserts from The Great British Bake Off.

DESIGN  Umbrella review of umbrella reviews of meta-analyses of observational studies.

DATA SOURCES  The Great British Bake Off website, Embase, Medline, and Scopus.

INCLUSION CRITERIA  Umbrella reviews of meta-analyses of observational studies evaluating the associations between Christmas dessert ingredients and the risk of death or disease.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES  Proportion of protective and harmful summary associations between ingredient groups from The Great British Bake Off Christmas dessert recipes and the risk of death or disease.

RESULTS  48 recipes for Christmas desserts (ie, cakes, biscuits, pastries, and puddings and desserts) were provided on The Great British Bake Off website with 178 unique ingredients that were collapsed into 17 overarching ingredient groups. A literature search identified 7008 titles and abstracts, of which 46 eligible umbrella reviews reported 363 unique summary associations between the ingredient groups and risk of death or disease. Of these summary associations, 149 (41%) were significant, including 110 (74%) that estimated that the ingredient groups reduced the risk of death or disease and 39 (26%) that increased the risk. The most common ingredient groups associated with a reduced risk of death or disease were fruit (44/110, 40%), coffee (17/110, 16%), and nuts (14/110, 13%), whereas alcohol (20/39, 51%) and sugar (5/39, 13%) were the most common ingredient groups associated with increased risk of death or disease.

CONCLUSIONS  Recipes for Christmas desserts from The Great British Bake Off often use ingredient groups that are associated with reductions, rather than increases, in the risk of death or disease. This Christmas, if concerns about the limitations of observational nutrition research are set aside, you can have your cake and eat it too.

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