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期刊来源：Nat Med

原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-024-02806-0

摘要内容如下：

在全球范围内，吸烟导致超过一半的长期吸烟者死亡，每年导致约700万人死亡。《世界卫生组织烟草控制框架公约》（FCTC）是全球反吸烟的主要政策战略，但其有效性尚不确定。我们的间断时间序列分析比较了170个国家（不包括中国）在《烟草控制框架公约》实施前后25岁以下（开始吸烟时，对干预措施的反应最大）吸烟者和45-59岁（可能戒烟时）戒烟者的数量和流行率趋势。将《烟草控制框架公约》批准后10年的趋势与《烟草控制框架公约》批准前的特定收入趋势进行对比，我们观察到目前吸烟人数累计下降15.5%（95%置信区间=-33.2至-0.7），25岁以下吸烟流行率下降-7.5%（95%CI=-10.6至-4.5）。《烟草控制框架公约》批准10年后，45-59岁的戒烟率（比较戒烟者和曾经吸烟者的人数）增加了1.8%（1.2至2.3）。在批准的同时将税收提高至少10个百分点的国家在所有三个结果中都比没有这样做的国家下降幅度更大。十年来，在170个国家中，《烟草控制框架公约》与减少2400万年轻吸烟者和增加200万戒烟者有关。

英文原文如下：

Abstracts

Smoking globally kills over half of long-term smokers and causes about 7 million annual deaths. The World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) is the main global policy strategy to combat smoking, but its effectiveness is uncertain. Our interrupted time series analyses compared before- and after-FCTC trends in the numbers and prevalence of smokers below the age of 25 years (when smoking initiation occurs and during which response to interventions is greatest) and on cessation at 45-59 years (when quitting probably occurs) in 170 countries, excluding China. Contrasting the 10 years after FCTC ratification with the income-specific before-FCTC trends, we observed cumulative decreases of 15.5% (95% confidence interval = -33.2 to -0.7) for the numbers of current smokers and decreases of -7.5% (95% CI = -10.6 to -4.5) for the prevalence of smoking below age 25 years. The quit ratio (comparing the numbers of former and ever smokers) at 45-59 years increased by 1.8% (1.2 to 2.3) 10 years after FCTC ratification. Countries raising taxes by at least 10 percentage points concurrent with ratification observed steeper decreases in all three outcomes than countries that did not. Over a decade across 170 countries, the FCTC was associated with 24 million fewer young smokers and 2 million more quitters.

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